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Apple’s deal with Wal-Mart has certainly raised a few
eyebrows. Nonetheless, analysts are seeing the huge potential that it may have.
One of those is Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster who, in a report released
today, said that next year Wal-Mart could sell as many iPhones as Apple’s own
retail stores.
Munster estimates this figure based on his own prediction
that Apple will sell 45 million iPhones next year, this prediction in turn being
based on the fact that Apple is expanding their iPhone line to feature more
products, including cheaper iPhones.
Munster posits that Apple will sell 30% of their iPhones,
that’s 13.5 million, in the U.S., and one third of those, 4.5 million, will be
sold at Apple’s some 208 retail stores. If Wal-Mart wants to sell as many as
Apple’s retail stores, and get 4.5 million iPhones off the shelf, they’d have
to sell 6% of each Apple store’s total volume. Munster says this is “achievable.”
The analyst also notes that he’s not jacking the 2009 iPhone
sales estimate from 45 million, as new distribution deals such as the one with
Wal-Mart are already included in his overall guess. However he thinks Street
numbers do not accurately portray the potential impact that Wal-Mart stores may
have on iPhone sales in 2009.
The rumored 99$ 4GB iPhone to be sold at Wal-Mart is another
issue however. Munster calls it unlikely, but he does say he expects Apple to
put out an iPhone with a lower price next year. The price may even go as low as
99$, which would do a world of good to Apple’s iPhone sales.
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