The much talked-about government plan assuring insurance
coverage for all Americans may bring additional revenue for the health
insurance industry. Wall Street analysts, however, are unsure if that revenue
will translate to actual profit growth.
Members of the industry have told Congress that they will
support a revamping of the national health care system, requiring them to
accept any and all customers. In return, they solicit that it be mandated that
everyone buy health coverage.
Analysts say that the mandate is essential. It ensures both the
healthy and sick pool in for coverage and allows insurers to spread the risk to
a larger amount of people. According to Ana Gupte, an analyst with Sanford C.
Bernstein & Co., that makes the plan “palatable” to the industry. "I
think overall it will be a growth lever for the business from a top-line
perspective," she said.
Overall, the business remains iffy. A universal coverage
plan would bring in excess of 46 million currently uninsured people into the
pool, creating a lot of capital.
The worry here is that the plan would cause government
oversight on underwriting, and that would put “downward pressure” on profits,
says Gupte.
Miller Tabak and Co. analyst Les Funtleyder ponders if the
government would instate profit maximums or dictate how much the insurer spends
on coverage. ''The details of how that would work will determine
profitability per patient or per aggregate,'' says Matthew Coffina, analyst
for Morningstar. ''Government plans tend to be much less profitable than
commercial insurance,'' he said. ''To the extent that they're ensuring
more people, it's good. To the extent that they're insuring people through
government options instead of through commercial options, then it would tend to
depress margins.''
Dave Shove, BMO Capital Markets Analyst says most insurers
want the uninsured covered, and that many “can see the handwriting on the wall.”
''Eventually health care costs were going to create a
two-tiered system, anybody could see that,'' he said. "Even if the
health insurers try to keep the prices down, you incrementally price away the
healthy. That's how insurance works."
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