Study Predicts Fewer but More Powerful Hurricanes

By Max Brenn
14:33, May 19th 2008
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Study Predicts Fewer but More Powerful Hurricanes

A study published by meteorologist Tom Knutson reveals that global warming could cause the number of hurricanes to get smaller by the end of the century. While this can prove to be good news for countries affected by the very powerful storms, there seems to be a downside to the matter: the hurricanes will be fiercer, but only with about 2 percent.

The study contradicts another work of the same researcher which stated that global warming was to be accounted for the increased number of these meteorological phenomena during the recent years.

Hurricanes have been seen in recent years as the proof of the effect greenhouse gases have on our environment. Tom Knutson, a former advocate of this idea, had also complained that the Bush administration was censoring his past studies.

Knutson’s new study, based on a computer model, is seen with both skepticism and appraisal by fellow researchers. While some of them, including computer specialists, say the study lacks a precise enough modeling of storms, others are quick to defend it.

The study states that tropical storms, which have the ability to develop into hurricanes, will be 27 percent less likely to happen by the end of the century, while hurricane frequency will drop 8 percent.

Knutson’s study could provide yet another proof in some scientists’ theories that hurricane activity can be described by time cycle which alternates periods of time with low activity with others when hurricanes tend to form more often.

All being said, researchers have come only with one conclusion: the subject is far from being elucidated and further studies and information is needed in order to solve the problem.



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