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An expert on satellite orbits notified on Friday that the collisionof the two satellites from Tuesday might not be the last of such kind unless some important changes are being made in the way that the government and the satellite operators share the data.
The retired U.S. Air Force Colonel T.S. Kelso, who was the first director of the Air Force Space Command Space Analysis Centre and is advising Iridium Satellite LLC, added that the fact that it took 50 years for this accident to occur it doesn’t mean it would take another 50 years for another crash to take place.
Kelso’s communications satellite was damaged in the crash. The retired U.S. Air Force Colonel runs a Web site through which he tracks satellites and debris for the Centre for Space Standards & Innovation. He also developed an advanced computer program which can give regular information at the time when the satellites pass close by each other.
Kelso added that this pattern created 151 objects which could have been likely to collide on Tuesday than the Russian military satellite and the Iridium satellite. He said that the closest approach was due to be 74 meters between another Russian satellite and debris from a second Russian satellite.
According to Kelso’s calculations, Iridium 33 was expected to pass within 527 meters of another object which had been closer than the Russian satellite. Kelso has been asking the Air Force for many years to take on the computer-based system and to reveal all its orbital data.
The United States officials are required to work together with commercial and civilian satellite operators and to share the data about the possible collisions, because, as Kelso said, there would have been no strong reason to withdraw some data that could have helped to avert such a collision.
When the Iridium and the Russian satellite collided, none of the two had sent any signals of accident. Their crash had created two clouds of debris which contained almost 600 identifiable pieces, according to the U.S. Defense Department. The officials stated that they couldn’t have predicted the crash.
Yet, one of the space experts said that if the classified data would have been made public, there could have been the chance that the public might have not focused on the Iridium satellite and the crash on Tuesday. He added that “there’s plenty of blame to go around” and that it’s not the case to talk about incompetence.
As Bryan Whitman, a Pentagon spokesman, stated on Thursday, it was impossible for the U.S. military to find and predict the movements of all the 18,000 objects in space all the time. Yet, some experts and some nongovernmental organizations have tried for years to convince the Air Force and Defense Department to release the secret data about the satellites. They have also warned the officials that such a lack in information could lead to crashes like the one on Tuesday.
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