Tehran - Iran's reformists held their annual congress Thursday, kicking off their campaign for next June's presidential election in which they hope to remove President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from power.
But their guru and main candidate for the election, Mohammad Khatami, has not yet declared his nomination.
The reformist cleric came and left the congress without saying one word to the press about his plans.
"He has not yet decided," his brother, Mohammad-Reza Khatami, said.
Khatami is considered by observers as the only candidate who could prevent the re-election of Ahmadinejad next year.
"If he comes, then also the people would come and in that case we would win," said reformist and former deputy interior minister Mostafa Tajzadeh.
The Plan B and alternative to Khatami could be former prime minister Mir-Hossein Moussavi, but he also has not yet given any signals whether he would run or not.
The worst case scenario for the reformists would be, like in 2005, a diversity of candidates who would steal each other's votes.
This splitting of the reform vote was one of the main reasons for the landslide victory of Ahmadinejad in 2005.
"I am sure that if Khatami comes, then there will be a consensus among the reformists over the candidate and we would enter the election with him as the sole candidate," Khatami's brother said.
During the Tehran congress of the main reformist party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front (IIPF), the party's leader Mohsen Mirdamadi harshly attacked the president's foreign and economic policies.
"If we have a change in the presidency, then I would definitely not envy him because repairing the damage (caused by Ahmadinejad) would indeed be a difficult task," Mirdamadi said.
He said that during the Khatami era (1997-2005) Iran enjoyed stability and tranquillity but Ahmadinejad has since his presidency pushed the country towards extremism, international isolation and even the threat of war.
Ahmadinejad's provocative policies, such a defying United Nations Security Council resolutions urging Tehran to suspend its controversial nuclear enrichment projects, and threatening Israel and denying the Holocaust, have gradually isolated Iran from the international community.
Iran's two arch-foes, the United States and Israel, suspect Iran is working on a secret project to acquire atomic weapons and have therefore not ruled out a military strike on Iran's nuclear sites.
In the economic field, Ahmadinejad has failed to implement his promised economic reforms favouring the poor and middle class, and the annual inflation rate has reached 30 per cent, almost three times higher than during Khatami's presidency.
"What Ahmadinejad has just achieved is making the poor poorer and the rich richer. He has simply expanded poverty within the society," Mirdamadi said.
Local observers believe that the June 12, 2009, election will not be decided by the candidates' promises but instead will depend on whether the so-called silent majority goes to the polls or not.
The election turnout in 2005 was around 60 per cent. Former deputy minister Tajzadeh believes that if even 10 per cent of those who did not vote in 2005 cast ballots this time, it will prevent Ahmadinejad's re-election.
"But we believe that only Khatami would be sufficient motivation for them (the silent majority) to come to the polls," Tajzadeh said.
Political analysts take it for granted that Ahmadinejad's supporters will be present at the polls under any circumstances. But they also take it for granted that the silent majority would vote against the president if given a credible choice.
Unity among Ahmadinejad's ultra-conservative wing is seen as much stronger than that of the reformists.
"The elections are historic and therefore a strong national will is required to put an end to the political status quo and the Ahmadinejad era," said Mirdamadi, the former head of the parliament's foreign policy commission.
"Khatami was driving a train towards progress and prosperity for Iran and Ahmadinejad derailed this train. We all have to do our best to put the train back on the rails," he added.
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