Shortly after Apple and its iPhone partner announced their financial results,
the analysts noticed that there could be a little bit of problem. It seems like
there are few hundreds of thousands iPhones roaming unaccounted on the market. Let’s
see what happened!
Earlier this week, Apple announced that is has sold 3,7
million iPhones until the end of 2007. On the other hand AT&T, the
exclusive distributor of iPhone in the US, revealed during its earnings
conference call that it has ended the last year with “just at or slightly under
2 million iPhone customers”.
As you can imagine, the analysts immediately noted the discrepancy
and has started to search the missing iPhones and some explanations. iPhone is available also in Europe,
but there are no precise estimations of how many mobile phones have been sold so far in UK,
Germany and France or in
other European countries. Orange,
France Telecom’s
mobile division, confirmed that the French users have bought 70,000 iPhone
during the first month of availability, instead of 100,000 forecasted. The
iPhone was launched in France
on November 29. In UK,
Telefonica’s O2 said that on track to sell 200,000 iPhones by early January.
There no estimations for the iPhone sales in Germany, except a statement made by
an official back in November. He said Apple sold 10,000 iPhone in the fist day.
According to the analysts who are speculating based on those
informations, Apple sold in Europe somewhere around
350,000 and 400,000 iPhones. Doing the math it results that 1.3 million of the
devices are missing in action.
Toni Sacconaghi, a financial analyst with Sanford C.
Bernstein, believes the gap means that the iPhone frenzy is wearing off Apple’s
iPhone are piling up in the distribution points.
"This is negative in two ways: (1) it indicates
end-user demand for iPhone is lower than many investors may think based on
Apple's sales figure; and (2) it points to slower iPhone sales in the current
quarter, since much of this inventory is likely to be drawn down,"
Sacconaghi wrote in a research note. Sacconaghi admits that 20 percent of all
iPhones purchased in 2007 were bought with the intention of unlocking, but that
still leaves 670,000 iPhones in stores.
However, according to other opinion the situation is quite
normal. According to Apple Insider, Gene Munster, a Piper Jaffray analyst, did
the math. With 2 million sales confirmed by AT&T and 350,000- 400,000 iPhones
that were sold throughout Europe, there are still 1,3 million iPhones missing,
but Munster has
calculated a bigger number of unlocked iPhones.
In October, Apple said that around 22 percent of US iPhone
sales were being purchased with the intent that they'd later be unlocked from
AT&T's network. Munster
rounded that estimation up to 25%, claiming that since October unlocking has
since "become easier."
However, that still leaves 512,000 iPhones, which are
unaccounted for, but Munster
maintains that they are in the stores and this level is "consistent with
Mac and iPod levels over the past 3 years."
Munster
estimates 220,000 units are spread between the stores in US and the other
292,000 iPhones are waiting for their European buyers.
Apple officials confirmed at this year MacWorld that they
are confident to meet the 10 million mark forecasted for the end of 2008. During
this year, Apple will launch its iPhone on the Asian market. Last year in
December, there were rumors that Steve Jobs has discussed the launch of iPhone
in Japan
with DoCoMo President Masao Nakamura. There were also reports that Apple’s
officials have negotiating with China Mobile the launch of iPhone in China.