Current Climate Change Irreversible in the Next 1000 Years

By Alexander Toldt
13:20, January 27th 2009
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Current Climate Change Irreversible in the Next 1000 Years

A recent analysis shows that no mater what the human kind does to fight the global warming, it may take as much as a 1000 years to curb the current climate trend. Even if by some miracle, the nations of the world would manage to bring the greenhouse gas levels back to the pre-industrial era, the climate changes that were already triggered are on their way.

The most visible effects of this climate change will be devastating long-term droughts and a high sea-level. This situation will last for a millennium or more because the heat accumulated in the ocean will have longer-then-estimated effects. The warming will lead to the melting of the polar icecaps a domino-like effect that will raise the level of the planet’s oceans and seas and cause droughts in numerous regions.

The rainfall patterns will suffer major changes and this will cause areas such as southwest American, southern Europe, northern Africa and western Australia to confront with severe droughts.

Susan Solomon, senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and lead author in this study, said that people shouldn’t expect the stopping of carbon dioxide emission to change the current climate trend back to normal in 100 or 200 years, but more likely by the year 3000.

"As a climate scientist, this was my intuition," said geoscientist Jonathan T. Overpeck of the University of Arizona.

The researchers who worked on this analysis said the results underline the urgent need for measures to control the greenhouse gas emissions.

The scientists involved in the study said the climate changes they described in the analysis will occur if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide reaches 450 to 600 parts per million. Today, the concentration is of about 385 ppm, the 450 ppm milestone is virtually inevitable and the 600 ppm. would be very hard to avoid by midcentury.

At a concentration level of 450 ppm, the aforementioned regions will receive 10 percent less rain and if the concentration reaches 600 ppm those regions will get about 15 percent less water. Researchers behind this study said the droughts those regions may go through will be similar to the Dust Bowl, a severe drought that hit the United States in the 1930s.

Kevin Trenberth, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., emphasized the fact that the climate change is as real as it gets and the public and policymakers have neglected it.

The analysis on which this article is based was conducted by researchers from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Switzerland and France and was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.



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