Medical economists who criticize the plans of the two presidential candidates say that while Barack Obama’s health care plan fails to curb the soaring coast of health care, McCain’s plan won’t lower the number of uninsured Americans.

The McCain health care plan would raise taxes on workers who receive health benefits, with the idea of encouraging their employers to drop coverage.

The Republican presidential nominee said he plans to put an end to tax breaks for health insurances provided by employers and come up with a refundable tax credit of $2,500/person or $5,000/family. The health insurance would be portable (same as Obama’s plan), which means people won’t lose the insurance coverage when they switch jobs. He would give people a $2,500 tax credit for individuals who buy health insurance and a $5,000 tax credit for families that do so. The tax credit is designed to help people buy insurance through their employer. The subsequent competition would drive the prices lower and encourage improvements in the insurance system, McCain said. “Insurance companies could no longer take your business for granted, offering narrow plans with escalating costs. It would help change the whole dynamic of the current system, putting individuals and families back in charge,” Senator McCain said.

On the other hand, an analysis published in the journal Health Affairs on Tuesday suggests that the McCain proposal will lead employers to drop coverage for over 20 million Americans, while 21 million people would gain coverage through the individual market. Analysts warned that employers would be less likely to offer coverage if they knew their workers could obtain it elsewhere. They say the effect of the plan “almost certainly will be to increase family costs for medical care.” For the uninsured, McCain proposes a state-provided Guaranteed Access Plan that would contract with insurers.

As for Obama, the Democrat candidate wants to implement a national insurance program through which the government would subsidize the cost of health coverage for those who can’t afford it. He plans to modernize the current system of employer- and government-provided health care, and to make some investments that will lead to a more efficient medical system. He plans to invest more in preventive services, like regular screenings and healthy lifestyle information.  

Obama’s plan would give individuals and small firms the option of joining large insurance pools. Obama would implement a national insurance program through which people and small businesses would be able to purchase health care just as federal employees. As for the uninsured, the Illionois Senator would create a National Health Insurance Exchange to assist people in buying private insurance and would also further develop Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.

But analysts writing in the journal said the consequences of the reform would be job losses or pay cuts. They say Obama’s promises “would require new, large, and rapidly growing federal subsidies that are unlikely to be sustainable, fiscally or politically.”