The sea ice in the Arctic region is melting rapidly. The researchers from University of Colorado at Boulder are now forecasting there is a 92 percent chance the 2007 September minimum extent of sea ice across the Arctic region will set an all-time record low.

"During the first week in July, the Arctic sea ice started to disappear at rates we had never seen before," said Sheldon Drobot, who leads CCAR's Arctic Regional Ice Forecasting System group in CU-Boulder's aerospace engineering sciences department.

"We have been seeing a sharp decline in thicker, multi-year ice that has survived more than one melt season," said CCAR Research Associate James Maslanik. "This has been replaced in many areas by a thin, first-year layer of ice as well as by younger, thinner types of multi-year ice. The thinner ice just does not have the mass to withstand the effects of warming climate."

The researchers are monitoring the sea ice extent since late 1970 when concerted satellite measuring efforts began.

According to the data released by the researchers the record low September minimum for sea ice, 2.15 million square miles, was recorded in 2005. Drobot and his colleagues said that for September 2007 the highest probability minimum extent is 1.96 million square miles. But there is a 25 percent chance the low will fall to 1.88 million square miles. The cause of this phenomenon is attributed to higher temperatures due to warming from greenhouse gas emissions.

Arctic sea ice is "one of the better predictors of climate change on Earth," Drobot said. "There will probably be about two-thirds as much sea this September as there was 25 years ago, a good indication that something significant is happening with the climate."

The decline of the Arctic sea ice is affecting particularly the western Arctic and this may have an important impact on the maritime industry. According to Drobot if the sea ice decline continues in the Arctic there probably will be a significant amount of intercontinental "Northwest Passage" type of transit from North America to places like Europe in the coming decades.

“A seasonal or year-round, ice-free channel through the Arctic waters would be significantly shorter and more cost effective than shipping through the Panama Canal”, Drobot added.