The Climate Prediction Center outlook calls for considerable activity with a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season.

For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes for which two reach major status.

NOAA explained that the Climate Prediction Center outlook is a general guide to the expected overall activity for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. It is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not imply levels of activity for any particular area

The expected conditions during the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season are related to two main climate signals: the continuation of conditions (called the multi-decadal signal) that have been conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995 and a possible La Niña influence or ENSO-neutral conditions during the peak months (August-October) of the season.

The science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions.

“The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land. That is the job of the National Hurricane Center after a storm forms.”

Tropical systems acquire a name – the first of which for 2008 will be Arthur – upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds reach 111 mph.

NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be updated on August 7, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.