A new federal study revealed that government spending on health care could double by 2017, accounting for nearly 20 percent of the national gross domestic product, or GDP, the total monetary value of all finished goods and services produced in a country.

Economists at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services forecast that health-care spending in the United States will hit $4.3 trillion by 2017, nearly double the 2007 amount. That would account for nearly 20 percent of GDP. In 2007, health-care spending accounted for 16.3 percent of GDP, according to the study.

“The cost of health care continues to be a real and pressing concern. Making sure we are paying for high quality health-care services, not just the number of services provided, is just one of the most critical issues facing the American public and the federal government now and in the future,” Kerry Weems, the agency’s Acting Administrator said in a statement, according to Reuters.

Total health spending will increased about 6.7 percent annually over the next 10 years as prices for drugs and medical technology increase and an aging population, led by the Baby Boom generation, increasingly seeks treatment for chronic diseases like diabetes and high blood pressure. Spending will outpace economic growth of 4.9 percent annually, the authors said.

“The impact of the population aging is expected…to have a substantial influence on the public share of spending growth, as the leading edge of the baby-boom generation becomes eligible for Medicare,” wrote economist Sean Keehan and his co-authors of the study.

According to the study, the program’s share of the national health bill will rise to 21 percent in 2017, or $884 billion, from 19 percent in 2006, as the baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, begin turning 65 and qualify for Medicare coverage.

Prescription drug spending will more than double to $515.7 billion by 2017 from projected $231.3 billion in 2007, driven by increased use of drugs.

Hospital spending will also double from $700 billion in 2007 to more than $1.3 trillion by 2017. The report says that spending by Medicaid, the U.S. program for the poor, will raise an average of 7.9 percent a year, faster than overall health spending, because of increased spending for home health care.

“Health care is expected to consume an expanding share of the U.S. economy over the next decade, meaning policy makers, insurers, and the public collectively face some difficult decisions about the way health care is delivered and paid for,” the economists said.

In the budget for next year, the Bush administration recommended various steps to curb Medicare spending from 7 percent to about 5 percent. Those recommendations would reduce spending by nearly $178 billion over five years, but it is not clear whether those cuts will win approval from Congress, as Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt has acknowledged the unpopularity of the recommendations. However, he said politicians must make some hard decisions. These decisions will be more difficult to make as the time passes.

The annual projections by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services are being published today in the journal Health Affairs.